What is the future of nature due to a warmer climate?

It has been so hot the past few days, 39 degrees plus, and certainly over an unusually longer period of time than the 'norm'.  Could this be our climate changing, could this just be a one off exceptionally long summer?  Is this just a normal cycle that the planet goes through over thousands of years?  Well, I have my own views..... but the question that has been on my mind is, how well will nature be able to cope with the climate changes that may, or are, yet to come in this century? 

Obviously, ecosystems have shown some resilience during the past natural climate changes in earth's history.  But, there has also been extinctions too, of many animal and plant species, many which have been no doubt to climate changes.  The difference now, compared to the natural changes over the past two million years or so (what we know believe to be true) are four important things.

The first difference is the speed at which these changes are occurring.  By far the largest global climate changes of the past two million years have been oscillations between ice ages (glacial periods) and warm periods, called interglacials.  The most rapid changes occurred at the end of ice ages, the rate of global warming at the end of ice ages was typically about 0.1 degree Celsius per century.  We are now looking at a rate of what we know as global warming seven times faster during the twentieth century and up to fifty times faster during the twenty-first century than the records show during the past periods.

The second difference is the absolute temperature that will be reached.  Past changes have all played out towards the colder end the scale - according to the data that has been made.  The past two million years have been dominated by a much colder climate than we have now, so it is not surprising that many plants and animals have evolved for colder conditions, now taking them outside the range that most plants and animals have evolved in for millions of years.

The third difference, unprecedented in the history of planet earth, is that humans have completely transformed a large fraction of the land surface for our own use as farmland, managed forest, roads and cities.  Undisturbed nature is often relegated to remnant fragment pockets.  This means that a gradual migration to different latitudes as the climate shifts is impossible in many cases.

The fourth difference is that we are now causing unprecedented changes to the chemistry of the ocean waters that cover over two-thirds of our planet and host over half of the biological productivity on earth.  Acidity of ocean waters will very likely be greater than at any time during at least the past twenty million years.  See the link and watch the documentary on this. 
http://myscienceacademy.org/2013/01/13/acid-test-the-global-challenge-of-ocean-acidification/


Overall, the picture of the expected impacts of global warming on the world's ecosystems is dire.  Simulations with global vegetation models support the conclusion that a large fraction of the earth's surface will be transformed by major shifts in vegetation cover.  These changes will likely turn the land biosphere from a carbon sink into a carbon source some time in the second half of this century, exacerbating atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global warming.  

It is time to act and re-think how we are living!! 

Today in History - 10th February

On this day in 1996, after three hours, world chess champion Gary Kasparov loses the first game of a six-game match against Deep Blue, an IBM computer capable of evaluating 200 million moves per second.  Man was ultimately victorious over machine, however, as Kasparov bested Deep Blue in the match with three wins and two ties and took home the $400,000 prize. An estimated 6 million people worldwide followed the action on the Internet.

Other:

American Revolution:

1779 : The Battle of Carr's Fort 

Automotive 1966 : Auto safety crusader Ralph Nader testifies before Congress 

Civil War 1861 : Davis learns he is president 

Cold War 1962 : Soviets exchange American for captured Russian spy

Crime 1992 : Boxing legend Mike Tyson convicted of raping beauty queen 

1763 : The French and Indian War ends 

1989 : Brown elected chairman of the Democratic Party 

Music 1972 : Ziggy Stardust makes his earthly debut 

Presidential 1899 : Herbert Hoover marries Lou Henry 

Sports 1996 : Deep Blue beats Kasparov at chess 

Vietnam War 1965 : Viet Cong blow up U.S. barracks 

World War I 1916 : U.S. secretary of war resigns 

World War II 1942 : Japanese sub bombards Midway 

Disaster 1970 : Avalanche buries skiers in France

Effects of Global Warming: Seasons and Ecosystems

OK, I have heard many people say, "So, if global warming is happening, then why is it colder, wetter in places??"  It is a good question from anyone who has minimal or no understanding in atmospheric sciences etc... The answer can be quite hard and complicated to explain, so I am certainly not going to go into it in a blog.  You can purchase any atmospheric science or Earth science book that can give you a detailed explanation on how earth systems work.  Global warming is the average warming around the Globe yep?, Climate Change is the changes in climate in specific areas....  just so we are clear ;)


A simple way of explaining it is, less abrupt changes would occur around the world as average temperatures increased. In temperate areas with four seasons, the growing season would be longer with more precipitation. This could be beneficial in many ways for these areas. However, less temperate parts of the world would likely see an increase in temperature and a sharp decrease in precipitation, causing long droughts and potentially creating deserts.

Because the Earth's climate is so complex, no one is really sure how much a change to one region's climate will affect other regions. For example, scientists at the University of Colorado theorize that the decrease in sea ice in the Arctic could reduce snowfall in Colorado because Arctic cold fronts would be less intense. This could impact everything from farmlands to the ski industry.

The most devastating effects, and also the hardest to predict, are the effects on the world's living ecosystems. Many ecosystems are very delicate, and the slightest change can kill off several species as well as any other species that depend on them. Most ecosystems are interconnected, so the chain reaction of effects could be immeasurable. The results could be something like a forest gradually dying off and turning to grassland or entire coral reefs dying. Many species of plants and animals would adapt or move to deal with the shift in climate, but many would become extinct.

Some ecosystems are already changing drastically due to a shift in climate. The University of Alberta reports that much of what once was tundra in northern Canada is turning into forests. They also noticed that the change from tundra to forest isn't linear; instead, it seems that the change happens in sudden spurts.
The human cost of global warming is hard to quantify. Thousands of lives per year could be lost as the elderly or ill suffer from heat stroke and other heat-related trauma. Poor and underdeveloped nations would suffer the worst effects, since they would not have the financial resources to deal with the problems that come with an increase in temperature. Huge numbers of people could die from starvation if a decrease in precipitation limits crop growth and from disease if coastal flooding leads to widespread water-borne illness.

The Carnegie Institution estimates that around $5 billion in crop losses per year are due to global warming. Farmers see a decrease of about 40 million metric tons of cereal grains like wheat, barley and corn each year. Scientists discovered that an increase of 1 degree Fahrenheit in average temperature results in a 3 to 5 percent drop in crop yields, this is huge! I came across a website with numerous videos regarding global warming and I urge you to check them out.  It is up to you what you think, but this is real, it is happening and I personally think that it is the lack of education as to why people are so skeptical about it - I was unaware of the extent myself before I actually started Uni.

Some people think that the science is being "hyped" in some way - an interesting documentary about Climate Doubt is here: http://video.pbs.org/video/2295533310

This is why I started my blog - more to educate people than anything.  Most people who read this, I am positive are well educated on such topics, fantastic, but there is still a few out there that I really hope I can help, the best way I know how, to spread the message and create an awareness of my own.

I appreciate all of you who reads my blogs, it means a lot to me :)

Janine

http://videos.howstuffworks.com/science/global-warming-videos-playlist.htm#video-30552

Litter and Plastics - Fremantle plastic bag reduction law passed

The seas in all parts of the world are littered with man-made debris, most of it plastics, which are practically indestructible.  Occasionally the litter is derived from onshore sources, such as waste tips on the coast, but most comes from shipping and high concentrations of plastic debris are found near busy shipping lanes and fishing areas. About 2kg per person per day is generated on ships and for a cruise liner and the amount of garbage to be disposed of can easily overwhelm the facilities of the ports it visits.

Most of the litter at sea or on the coast is primary or secondary packaging, commonly plastic bags, cups and bottles, tampon applicators, and pieces of polystyrene.  Plastics are inert to marine organisms and while floating at sea may acquire a fauna of encrusting organisms such as algae, barnacles, hydroids, and tunicates.  Larger animals ingest plastic objects: large fish and about 59% of beach turtles have been found with plastic cups and other objects lodged in their digestive tract amongst many other animals.  This is just not acceptable. 

Small particles of polyethylene, polypropylene, and sometimes polystyrene 3-4mm in diameter are widespread in all oceans.  These small particles include weathered fragments of larger plastic articles, but a large proportion of plastic pellets which are 'feedstock' to the plastics industry.  These particles have been found in the stomachs of flying squid, turtles and other animals.

So, what do we do about this?  The need to reduce the manufacturing of plastic to other forms of biodegradable material is essential for a start.  Cities need to put in place strong policies that reduce the amount of plastic used and I am extremely excited that the city of Fremantle has become the first local government in Western Australia to ban retailers from issuing single-use non-biodegradable plastic bags.

The Plastic Bag Reduction Local Law 2012, which was adopted by council this week will not only reduce the amount of waste sent to landfill, but will also limit the risk of harmful non-biodegradable plastic bags making their way into the local marine environment.  

I will be working on this for the next semester of my internship and I am extremely excited to be a part of this wonderful project.  I will keep you posted on it's progress as I am sure this will be a very successful one indeed.

Read more from our very own Fremantle Mayor Dr Brad Pettitt:

http://cofremantle.wordpress.com/2013/02/01/fremantle-plastic-bag-reduction-law-passed/

Watch this documentary,   "Garbage Island: An Ocean Full of Plastic (Part 1/3)" , where a team take a trip on the ocean to 
spot where currents spin and cycle, churning up tons of plastic into a giant pool of chemical soup, flecked with bits and whole chunks of refuse that cannot biodegrade.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D41rO7mL6zM

Stepping Out: Laetoli Footprints

I want to share something really cool and interesting with you.  Some of you may already be aware of this, some not, but whether you have or haven't I think it is something so awesome that it warrants a brief blog about it.  

In 1976, a Yale University paleoanthropologist Andrew Hill was working with Mary Leakey's research group on the excavation of an early-hominid archaeological site in Laetoli, Tanzania, when he unexpectedly stumbled across one of the most spectacular prehistoric discoveries ever made: a line of hominid footprints left in mud 3.6 million years ago.  I know right!

Up until then, the earliest known human footprints were only tens of thousands of years old.  Remarkably, Hill's Laetoli footprint trail was nearly 30 metres long and preserved in volcanic ash that had turned into a cement-like solidity as good as a plaster cast.  It left us with an action replay of one of the first species of prehistoric hominids who walked upright on two legs.  

The ideal surface material was created by a coating of volcanic ash from the nearby Sadiman volcano that had settled on a sandy surface.  When rain then fell, the sooty volcanic sediment became soft , like wet cement, and all the birds and small animals that walked on it left small prints.  But they were joined by the track of two hominids, one large and the other smaller, trailed possibly by a third (child?), whose tracks share some of the larger individuals footprints.

A further eruption of dust from the volcano served to seal up the footprints for prosperity before the rains returned and washed them away.  The light rain then turned the ash into cement, which set solid.  There, they remained until they were exposed by millions of years of gentle erosion.

These prints have led to all sorts of deductions and speculations , however they differ significantly from chimpanzee footprints and are not very different from those of modern humans, with an aligned big toe, heel, and an arched foot.  Interestingly the smaller individual of the two ( because they left shallower prints) is lopsided, bearing more weight on one side - perhaps carrying a baby?  The sequence of depressions also reveal the pattern of walking, with an initial strike followed by a push off by the front toes, again like our own stride pattern.  

The length of the footprints along the two trails are 19cm and 20cm, umm, about a boys size 1 in UK sizing, indicating that the individuals were probably about 120cm (4 ft) and 152 (5 ft) tall.  For the first time we had what amounted to a photographic of pre-human intelligent activity that could be understood in terms of our present day movements, how awesome!

A summer stroll on the beach could create the same impressions on the sand, only a marvellous accident of nature could preserve them, and we do not really want that do we.  

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/evolution/library/07/1/l_071_03.html 


You can find more reading in:
N. Agnew and M. Demas, 'Preserving the Laetoli Footprints' , Scientific America (September 1998), pp. 45-55.  Mary D. Leaky and J. M. Harris (eds), Laetoli: A Pliocene Site in Northern Tanzania, Clarendon Press, Oxford  (1987).

Using Food to Bring A Community Together

The new Bathers Beach Sunset Food Markets, Fremantle, has a variety of international food.  Shopping at such a Market puts the 'customer' in a situation completely different from going to the supermarket. The customer is much more in touch with the land, learning to eat foods that normally they wouldn't, experiencing the foods from other cultures.  The variety of items one can find at these Market is astonishing.

However, when I viewed the pictures from our very awesome Mayor or Fremantle Dr Brad Pettitt and well respected Fremantle blogger Roel Loopers (see below), I instantly recognised that a large focus of the Market is the building of community, both in and out of the Market itself. One thing that draws people to a Market such as this is its friendly atmosphere. This is a place where you can build relationships with others, learn to know each other, begin to exchange stories and events of the week in addition to experiencing eating great international foods. Events such as the Bathers Beach Sunset Food Market, drew in large numbers of people and this gives a real sense of place to the community.

So why would a Market such as this create a sense of place.  Well, people's sense of community is that the members have a shared emotional connection.  This element seems to be the defining feature for people to experience a true sense of community.  There are many features that facilitate people having shared emotional connections.  One feature that connects to the physical features of a community is that people have an emotional connection with each other when they have a shared common interest, in this case, food.  Shared emotional connections are often experienced in public spaces, which can generate or restore a deep sense of community through providing people places to socialise and interact with each other.  People need places where they can socially interact with each other on a non-commercial level. 

Food plays an essential role in building community. One of the things that has changed so much in just my lifetime is our relationship to food and community. Many of us no longer have the experience of having meals together with our families or friends due to our busy lifestyles. It’s exciting to see that there’s a renaissance of people realising how important it is to use food as a way to connect with each other. People are doing this in all kinds of creative, inspired, and fun ways and these such Markets provide a valuable sense of community.  

The Market is held within the community so this means you will be seeing locals every time you go.  This regular meeting provides an opportunity to ‘catch up’ and 'slow down', to make a real connection, meaning, being part of the slow movement, providing the opportunity to sit and while the time away with other people.  Such Markets serve as an anchor attraction for a community, drawing foot traffic which, with the right location, spills into adjacent retail areas and can spark revitalisation.  

Markets are community anchors which provide a way to bring people together, anchoring a community around food and place.

One of the greatest things about this Market is its ability to generate happiness and good will at the heart of a community.  

Photo from our very own Fremantle Mayor Brad Pettitt - check out his blog at:

http://cofremantle.wordpress.com/2013/01/12/bathers-beach-sunset-market/

or see more photos from Roel Loopers blog at: http://freoview.wordpress.com/2013/01/13/fantastic-bathers-beach-sunset-market/

Expectations and our beliefs

Expectations or a preconceived idea of how we view the future whether it is moments from right now or years from now are always based on personal beliefs that we feel will provide us with a sense of power, control and wholeness within ourselves and the world. It can be expectations within a personal relationship or it can be with how things are unfolding across the planet, it’s relevant to any experience. Let’s take a look at how these beliefs are affecting us. What would happen if we were to let them go?

When we engage in expectation for anything, what tends to happen? Well firstly, it brings us out of the present moment. It clouds our viewpoint and doesn’t really allow us to appreciate what’s in front of us. It can create disappointment as well because we’re not at peace if things don’t go the way as planned. Even though we’re not at peace based on our beliefs, the situation is still always perfect as it allows us to move beyond the limitations of always feeling disappointed, fearful or just emotionally attached to whatever plays out.We’ve buried our feelings and beliefs and the way society is designed, there’s so much fear and judgement towards one another and our experiences that it’s become very difficult to even just talk to each other and to really work on and move beyond our challenges together. Ironically, love and communication seem like a taboo thing in society in many ways.

It’s so easy to get wrapped up in our needs and wants, our fears, our beliefs of how we need to identify within the world and control our lives. It’s easy because it’s being supported. We’re being bombarded, from all angles, with belief systems of how we should be, feel, think and act. It’s a great experience and challenge for all of us to observe and play with, but internal reflection is the only way to navigate your way out of it. Getting to know who you are through your life's experiences.

If we let it, society can take us away from who we really are, but the power of observation can assist us so well. This is where our true power lies. Our awareness. Our consciousness. By becoming aware of these thoughts and beginning to observe how we are limiting ourselves, we can move out of stuck states that we feel. We can move beyond any form of suffering and discomfort. It’s a bit comical to see how we’ve become so used to a specific way of life and how we’ve become comfortable being uncomfortable. But that is changing as well. It’s becoming a lot more difficult to run from, bury or ignore what we’re feeling inside. I think an important direction to take from here is to learn to really be comfortable with everything but not in the way that we’re covering up any uncomfortable feeling with distractions.  We have to truly accept everything for what it is. When we do this, it can lead to more opening within us where we get the opportunity to see, feel and connect with everything rather than judge it or fear and misunderstand it. There’s beauty in every situation and every thing on this Earth, but to really know, see and feel that, we need to know see and feel it within ourselves first. What we do internally is how we interact with the outside world. This is why individual change is so important. 

We’re all one and we’re all connected not just with each other but with everything. The animals, nature, the planet, even the rest of the universe. Everything affects everything. So what do we expect in our lives and how are we viewing it? There’s a power that we all hold far beyond our need to control, it’s a power that is limitless, but it’s just being covered up by our beliefs. Try observing and be excited to see what presents. You just might enjoy not being limited anymore!