Tuesday 12 February 2013

What is the future of nature due to a warmer climate?


It has been so hot the past few days, 39 degrees plus, and certainly over an unusually longer period of time than the 'norm'.  Could this be our climate changing, could this just be a one off exceptionally long summer?  Is this just a normal cycle that the planet goes through over thousands of years?  Well, I have my own views..... but the question that has been on my mind is, how well will nature be able to cope with the climate changes that may, or are, yet to come in this century? 

Obviously, ecosystems have shown some resilience during the past natural climate changes in earth's history.  But, there has also been extinctions too, of many animal and plant species, many which have been no doubt to climate changes.  The difference now, compared to the natural changes over the past two million years or so (what we know believe to be true) are four important things.

The first difference is the speed at which these changes are occurring.  By far the largest global climate changes of the past two million years have been oscillations between ice ages (glacial periods) and warm periods, called interglacials.  The most rapid changes occurred at the end of ice ages, the rate of global warming at the end of ice ages was typically about 0.1 degree Celsius per century.  We are now looking at a rate of what we know as global warming seven times faster during the twentieth century and up to fifty times faster during the twenty-first century than the records show during the past periods.

The second difference is the absolute temperature that will be reached.  Past changes have all played out towards the colder end the scale - according to the data that has been made.  The past two million years have been dominated by a much colder climate than we have now, so it is not surprising that many plants and animals have evolved for colder conditions, now taking them outside the range that most plants and animals have evolved in for millions of years.

The third difference, unprecedented in the history of planet earth, is that humans have completely transformed a large fraction of the land surface for our own use as farmland, managed forest, roads and cities.  Undisturbed nature is often relegated to remnant fragment pockets.  This means that a gradual migration to different latitudes as the climate shifts is impossible in many cases.

The fourth difference is that we are now causing unprecedented changes to the chemistry of the ocean waters that cover over two-thirds of our planet and host over half of the biological productivity on earth.  Acidity of ocean waters will very likely be greater than at any time during at least the past twenty million years.  See the link and watch the documentary on this. 
http://myscienceacademy.org/2013/01/13/acid-test-the-global-challenge-of-ocean-acidification/


Overall, the picture of the expected impacts of global warming on the world's ecosystems is dire.  Simulations with global vegetation models support the conclusion that a large fraction of the earth's surface will be transformed by major shifts in vegetation cover.  These changes will likely turn the land biosphere from a carbon sink into a carbon source some time in the second half of this century, exacerbating atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global warming.  

It is time to act and re-think how we are living!! 


2 comments:

  1. This Sci Am article just out is relevant - we are loading the dice...
    http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=scientists-detail-severe-future-impacts-of-climate-change

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  2. Hia - I did reply to this but the comment isn't showing - weird.
    Thank you for this its a great article, much appreciated :)

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